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Europe will have a minimum demand of 700 TWh of hydrogen in 2050. The steel and chemical industries will be the main drivers of a hydrogen economy then, generating a high demand for imports and electrolysers. A pan-European hydrogen backbone is needed to connect the dispersed centers of production, storage and consumption. These and other insights are presented in the latest white paper from the BMBF's hydrogen flagship project TransHyDE System Analysis, coordinated by Fraunhofer IEG and DECHEMA e.V.
The researchers looked at demand from industry, households and the transportation sector. After 2030, they expect significant cost reductions for green energy carriers. However, the expected cost reductions do not lead to economical heat generation at different temperature levels and applications (low-temperature heat, heating and processes). Overall, the researchers have determined a minimum requirement of 700 TWh of gaseous hydrogen for Europe and the UK in 2050. Hydrogen will only be beneficial for the implementation of the energy transition if the temporal and spatial availability matches with the respective needs. Hydrogen is therefore needed primarily for high temperature and energy intensive process heat applications, or as a feedstock in industry and for central power and district heating generation.
In the industrial sector, it is mainly steel production and the related high temperature process heating applications that result in a hydrogen demand of 200 to 300 TWh. The advantage: the steel industry requires large quantities of climate neutral hydrogen but can also operate flexibly with a mix of hydrogen and natural gas, allowing a more continuous transformation.
The chemical industry could also be a main driver for the scale of Europe's hydrogen infrastructure. The production of green ammonia or high-value chemicals requires large quantities of hydrogen. Co-coordinator Mario Ragwitz, Institute Director at Fraunhofer IEG says: "However, it is uncertain whether the full value chain from solar and wind power to hydrogen production and the production of various chemicals can be realized in Europe. Imports of intermediate products such as green methanol or ammonia could reduce the demand for hydrogen in the industrial sector in Europe. These sensitivities have therefore been considered within the framework of TransHyDE."
The second most important consumer of hydrogen is the transportation sector. Co-author Christoph Nolden, Head of Head of Gas, Hydrogen & Material Infrastructures at Fraunhofer IEG, says: "International aviation and shipping is dependent on synfuels based on hydrogen. This generates a total hydrogen demand of 450 TWh for green fuels in 2050. The main uncertainty in the transport sector is the competition between direct electrification and hydrogen in long-haul trucks. Various scenarios show an additional demand of up to 380 TWh in 2050, when 40 % of long-haul trucks are driven by fuel cells."
The production of hydrogen in Europe depends - according to the researchers - on whether the ambitious goals for the expansion of European wind and solar plants are achieved.
The role of electrolysis in sector coupling is poised to evolve significantly during the market ramp-up, according to co-coordinator Florian Ausfelder, Head of Energy and Climate at DECHEMA e.V.: "First, electrolysers will be integrated into clusters to ensure the secure and continuous hydrogen supply for industrial use. Once the hydrogen infrastructure is established, electrolysers can feed into the grid while providing flexibility in the electricity network: This allows grid operators to use electrolysers to reduce the need for expansion of the power grid and thus costs." It should be noted that, especially at the early phase of the market ramp-up, there may not be enough green hydrogen to meet demand. During this phase, alternatives such as blue hydrogen would have to meet existing demand.
Co-author Tobias Fleiter, Head of Demand Analysis and Projections at Fraunhofer ISI: "Security of supply and the transformation to a hydrogen economy also depend on the roll-out of the respective transport and storage infrastructure for hydrogen. Modelling results show that a suitably dimensioned hydrogen backbone network enables the supply of hydrogen demand at minimal overall system costs." The backbone network could connect potential producers of renewable energies, especially in Northen and Southern Europe, with underground storage sites and industrial demand centers in Central Europe.
Co-author My Yen Förster, DECHEMA e.V.: "The repurposing of natural gas pipelines plays a key role in transforming the German and European energy system. The research results confirm that this repurposing can satisfy supply requirements of various scenarios. Imports from non-EU countries seem most competitive if they are bound to pipelines." Pipeline-bound imports can come via the MENA region (Middle East and North Africa). Imports of hydrogen derivatives or intermediate products like ammonia or iron sponge are expected to be cheaper than their production in Europe.
Partners involved
In addition to the Fraunhofer Research Institution for Energy Infrastructures and Geothermal Energy IEG and DECHEMA Gesellschaft für Chemische Technik und Biotechnologie e.V., the white paper was also contributed to by employees of: Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Salzgitter Mannesmann Forschung GmbH, Forschungsstelle für Energiewirtschaft FfE, Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus-Senftenberg, VNG AG, Fraunhofer Institute for Factory Operation and Automation IFF, DVGW Research Center at the Engler-Bunte Institute, Institut für Zukunftsenergie- und Stoffstromsysteme gGmbH, Technische Universität Berlin, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE.
The TransHyDE flagship project is funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research.
Links:
Hydrogen flagship projects: TransHyDE: H2-transport
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